Dying Out
January 11th, 2022 by G.
This seems like it deserves much more attention:
– the total fertility rate in the US has declined from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.64 in 2020
– half the world’s population lives in countries with below-replacement-level fertility
– China now has a fertility rate even lower than Japan’s pic.twitter.com/CIbazSKue4
— Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp) January 4, 2022
Would one could say, ‘an enemy hath done this’
Bookslinger
January 11, 2022
Yes. It deserves attention.
At the root cause, one or two steps removed, it is the enemy. Collectively speaking, we have allowed the enemy to have their way. We have allowed the enemy’s dupes (knowing and unknowing) to take control of our institutions. Alinsky and Gramsci seem to be winning, so far.
While leadership-capable conservatives mostly went into business and professions, leadership-capable liberals mostly went into media, academia, and politics. Guess which faction has had more influence on upcoming generations?
People are not the enemy. To quote Kreeft, they are our patients.
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Covid is a blip on the fertility rate. TFR will likely make somewhat of, but not a full, rebound, … before continuing downward again.
The /precipitous/ drop, imho, will happen around 2030, when those born in 2010 reach their reproductive years. That age cohort will have had their entire schooling, excuse me, I mean brain-washing, (starting in 2015) under the new Obergefell paradigm.
Things will ramp up (or down; that is) up to that point, as previous age cohorts who still had some, but not all, of their schooling, er, I mean brain-washing, in the new paradigm, pass through their reproductive years.
The thing to watch then is the birth rate of 20-29 year olds, but especially 20-25 year olds. that’s the tell. But most media will continue to blend it in with women up to age 39 to disguise the true disaster.
We already see the trend. My prediction of “younger = gayer” is coming true right before our eyes. Though the reality is actually gay-er, bi-er, trans-er, none-of-the-above-er.
I think it will cross below 1.0 somewhere in the range of 2030-2033.
Actuaries at insurance companies see it coming, because birth stats, including age of mother, are recorded. It’s all in everyone’s online health record, that insurance companies, by definition, have access to. (That’s one of the forms you sign at every health care provider, to make all records available to insurance companies so claims can be looked at to see if its covered, and so payments can be processed.)
Actuaries know how to run those numbers, and extrapolate those trends.
think on this: Every woman who is going to give birth in the 2030’s (with very few exceptions) …. is already born.
Zen
January 11, 2022
Demographic Suicide Cults
Momof6
January 12, 2022
An interesting juxtaposition: Almost immediately after reading this post plus the comments, I saw that a friend of mine on social media made a post about how our standard works are bookended with a study of the doctrine of the Family. He pointed to D&C 132 and Genesis 3 as his specific examples, and I generally thought his analysis was insightful and uplifting. Well, his post was inundated with the usual suspects – “I hate it when we talk about families in church because it just makes me feel bad for not being married.” “It causes pain to those who can’t marry someone they love.” “It’s cruel to tell youth that marriage is ordained of God” “We are teaching about families wrong.” “So many people face infertility that we should walk on eggshells when we talk about having children.” “No one can afford children in this economy so it can’t possible apply to us in 2022.”
Those snide, pseudo-intellectual, “the-prophet-isn’t-as-smart-as-me,” “gospel-standards-are-stupid-and-outdated-and-unrealistic” attitudes RIGHT THERE are why we are facing a population crash.
Sute
January 12, 2022
Let’s brain storm the positives of covid / sex.
The generation of school elementary students being raised to view breathing, kissing, holding hands, etc. as dangerous, will be less likely to engage in promiscuous behavior, decreasing premarital sex and abortions.
Unfortunately, they might have addled brains that find sex with the necessary exchange of bodily fluids too disgusting for their biological impulses to overcome. (no one tell them that sperm actually travel to the female brain)
Zen
January 12, 2022
Less sex, but no more chastity or virtue. The worst of both worlds. A certain line from Screwtape comes to mind.
Rozy
January 13, 2022
The comment from Momof6 caused me to think about other subjects we teach in church, specifically the call to be like Jesus. Few (that I know of) object to that due to the impossibility of ever achieving it. Why is having a standard for families and teaching it openly so controversial?
Twice in my life I’ve had sacred experiences related to what happens in the eternities. Let me just say that if you don’t want children in this life and make all sorts of excuses about it, you have sealed your fate. You won’t be having them in the next life either. This life is where we prepare for the next by our choices and attitudes.
It breaks my heart to see so many, otherwise, good LDS couples limit their families because they shortsightedly think they can’t afford it. What’s that temple covenant we make about sacrificing everything for the building of the kingdom? And what’s that promise from Nephi about the Lord preparing the way for us to keep any commandment?