Here’s a follow up to yesterday’s 2023 LDS Birth Update.

Like Mansfield pointed out, the summary of our data and rough analytical methods is either we have comically low activity rates, comically low birth rates, or a combination of low activity and low birth rates.

My guess is that our actual TFR is around 2.4 – 2.7, since we seem to track Gentile TFR with a plus one.

Let’s see what that implies for our activity rates as a rough and ready plausibility check.

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We climbed a steep trail that was a mile long. The trail was wet and muddy.

At the top we could see for many miles all around. There were a hundred happy people and a dozen dogs up there. We used eclipse glasses to look at the sun.

When the moon completely blocked the sun, it was dark like it is an hour after sunset. I could see the planets Jupiter and Venus in the sky near the sun. Because the moon was blocking, the sun looked black with a white fringe all around it.
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The Church’s latest statistical report has 17,255,394 members as of the end of the year.  With 93,594  new children of record.

Taken at its face value,  that is a rate of 5.42 births per 1,000 people.  That is lower than any existing country, lower even than vanishing countries like South Korea and Japan which have achieved all time low birth rates.  The good news such as it is: we are up slightly from last year’s 5.24 births per 1,000 people.

However, you probably shouldn’t take it at face value.  What these statistics probably actually mean is that the actual number of members who have any relationship at all with the church is around 3-6 million people and that our birth rates have been dropping pretty badly.  If you assume even fewer actual members the birth rates look better and vice versa.

For comparison, in 1986 we had the same number of children of record with a membership of 6  million (link).

Here’s a more detailed analysis of what our membership and new children of record numbers could mean.

Just How Bad Is Our Birthrate

All impressions idiosyncratic or your money back.

Guaranteed to be too ill-written to have been generated by ChatGPT

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Machiavelli was exiled to the sticks for awhile, doing rural work.    He famously described that period this way:

When evening comes, I return home and enter my study; on the threshold I take off my workday clothes, covered with mud and dirt, and put on the garments of court and palace. Fitted out appropriately, I step inside the venerable courts of the ancients, where, solicitously received by them, I nourish myself on that food that alone is mine and for which I was born; where I am unashamed to converse with them and to question them about the motives for their actions, and they, out of their human kindness, answer me. And for four hours at a time I feel no boredom, I forget all my troubles, I do not dread poverty, and I am not terrified by death. I absorb myself into them completely.

That’s how I feel about General Conference.

Your comments below.

I am not a gushy fanboy of President Nelson to any extraordinary degree.  So I think I can fairly judiciously say that its because of their merits that some of his talks have really stuck with me.

We all have our idiosyncratic little store of conference talks that we mentally refer back to from time to time.  Mine includes two from President Nelson.  One is his talk on the 8 keys to revelation.  The other is his recent talk on Think Celestial.  The catchphrase from the talk is appropriately catchy, but I just relistened to it yesterday and recommend the whole thing.

From Daughter Number One

I had a dream last night.  In the dream I was someone who resented and didn’t understand commandments.  The stated purpose of the dream was to teach me why the commandments were necessary.

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Jacob is one of the most distinct personalities in scripture.

Jacob 1:8

I would … all men would believe in Christ, and view his death, and suffer his cross and bear the shame of the world;

Jacob 2:15

O that he would show you that he can pierce you, and with one glance of his eye he can smite you to the dust!

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When discussing the judgment of the wicked, Christ said: ““For behold, the day cometh that shall burn as an oven; and all the proud, yea, and al that do wickedly, shall be stubble; and the day that cometh shall burn them up, saith the Lord of Hosts” (3 Nephi 25:1). However, when discussing the blessing of the righteous, Isaiah said: “Who among us shall dwell with the devouring fire? Who among us shall dwell with everlasting burnings? He that walketh righteously and speaketh uprightly” (Isaiah 33:13). Apparently, both the righteous and the wicked will experience “the devouring fire,” and will experience the “day…that shall burn as an oven.” However, the righteous shall ‘dwell’ with the burning and the heat and the light, while the wicked will be burned up. How much light can you endure?

Maybe the reason that we experience trials – the refiner’s fire – here on Earth is because that’s an opportunity to acclimatize ourselves to glory in increments that we can stand. We can experience that fire and become pure and conductive of light here on Earth, slowly, over a lifetime – or we can experience it all at once when Christ comes. “But who may abide the day of his coming, and who shall stand when he appeareth? For he is like a refiner’s fire, and like fuller’s soap.”

I think the answer is simple: those that have experienced the refiner’s fire and endured. Those who have been faithful. Those who have sought light and glory and the countenance of Christ in all that they did. Those that have felt the burning of the Holy Ghost already. They are those who will abide the day of His coming, and who will dwell with the everlasting burnings of His glory.

Compare  the Burning Sight of God

It is a strange thing following Christ.

We must blend being perfecting submissive, with also being the perfect pioneer.

Ever try being 100% obedient and submissive, and ONLY doing what you have been commanded? To be the perfect robot? You will see in short order, that God refuses to command in all things. I expect if He made an exception to that, we would not enjoy it either.

So that means, we must be wise and diligent stewards, actively thinking of the best way, and new ways to fulfill our stewardship, while also being perfectly obedient. The Almighty has no intention of turning us into robots, and will resist our every attempt to be exactly that.

We must be obedient pioneers, striking out into the unknown, exploring new territory, making decisions while also diligently watching our Liahona for new instructions.

God wants sons, not robots.

Jesus taught three parables about where souls are going when judged. Matthew 25. https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Matthew-Chapter-25/ Read carefully they hint at the three kingdoms of glory. At least, at something more than just one unitary heaven and one unitary hell.

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Last week with Thursday off I took my two youngest children to the Smithsonian’s Udvar-Hazy Air and Space Musuem. It is a huge hanger at Dulles Airport stuffed full of retired airplanes and a few rockets. Its signature collection pieces are Space Shuttle Discovery, an SR-71 Mach 3 reconnaissance jet, and an Air France Concorde. It had been several years since I had last visited, and there were more people than any time I had been there previously. One enjoyment in that was the several times I was close enough to overhear fathers explaining exhibits to their families.

—An aircraft I had not noticed before was the Aerodrome that Langley was trying to get airborne at the time the Wrights succeeded. When I saw that suspended cloth-draped stick skeleton, I thought it was someone’s fanciful project to bring a Leonardo da Vinci sketch into 3-D full-scale reality.

—The Wright-Patterson Air Force Museum in Ohio is a vast collection. I visited once in 2003 (the day the Space Shuttle Columbia failed on re-entry). The last few years I keep wanting to return.

How do you prepare for General Conference?  I’m going to reread my notes from last time, do a little general reflection about where I and my charges are at in life, and do some praying.  Your thoughts and suggestions are welcome.