Why are the LDS not having kids?
An interesting article I was linked recently about Israeli TFR (decent) has led to some speculative, preliminary thoughts on why the LDS TFR is what it is (bad).
First of all, don’t just accept everything the article says, at least when applied to non-Israeli fertility. I’m just using it as a jumping off point to look at various explanations folks have offered for low fertility and see whether they apply to us. This is more an attempt it is to find possible causes than it is a call for action. Just because something is a root cause doesn’t inherently mean that it ought to be fixed or can be fixed.
Low Nationalism: Yeah, probably. We aren’t a country but certainly our sense of ourselves as a distinct people surrounded by a somewhat hostile population has declined. The decline in that insular feeling may be a good thing, but it certainly could provide an explanation for the preciptious drop in our birth rates. No Kampf, no Kinder.
Affordable Family Formation: Probably. Especially along the Wasatch Front but also in America generally, housing costs to wages have gotten really out of whack. Especially for one-income families, which are the kinds most conducive to having more children.
Environmental Fertility Depressants: the linked article rules this out, but I wouldn’t. America is more obese than Israel.
Religiosity: My sense is that it has declined among us in tandem with the drop in birth rates. This isn’t really measurable, its just my sense.
Socially Recursive Fertility: the author’s explanation, which he makes a much more persuasive case for than he does against the other explanations. Essentially he says that age of marriage, expectations for one’s spouse, and expectations about when one should start having kids and how much they should be spaced are largely mimetic. It can therefore be hugely influenced by media (there’s a lot of evidence that more Western media means more birth rate drops) and by what people see around them. Socially recursive fertility is definitely in play as a factor for the LDS.
- decentering large families — There has been a concerted effort to decenter large families, especially rural American ones. This is partly as an attempt to be more inclusive and partly because large rural American families code badly among the general population and we are trying to do outreach
- Less insularity — Less insularity means the general American population is more available as a ‘peer group’ to influence us mimetically, and their marriage and fertility routines are badly broken.
- Fewer anchor families — For a variety of reasons, there are fewer huge, happy, prosperous families living the Mormon Dream. Most people weren’t imitating them directly, but they did help anchor people’s expectations about fertility. If the Johnsons had 10, then I could feel like a reasonable moderate with 6 or 7. Now that the Johnsons have 6 or 7, I feel like a reasonable moderate with 4. Some people could argue that the declines have occurred in tandem but I believe that the largest families declined first.
Filed under: Deseret Review | Tags: birth dearth, demography, fertility, tfr
bruce g charlton
August 12, 2024
The problem of sub-fertility (and indeed even regarding it As a problem!) is apparently universal to all religions that are integrated (economically, socially, legally – especially employment law, and human rights) with mainstream modernity.
The exceptions which have significantly above-replacement fertility by choice (presuming they still are exceptions – I haven’t checked for a while) are among patriarchal religions that are substantially isolated – such as the Amish (and, I think, Hutterites) in the US; and various Jews and Muslims who are maintained from externally – either by state benefits, and/or by charity.
There is a large group of ultra-orthodox Jews living a few miles from me (in Gateshead, England) who have had a TFR around 8-10 in recent years. I knew a member of this group at one time, and she said all the men were training as Rabbis or scholars, and were mostly maintained by charity from other (less orthodox) Jews.
Until around 1990, Mormons were unique in having above replacement TFR and yet being substantially integrated, but Mormons are no longer that exception.
I think there was probably a time some 30 years when the CJCLDS would have needed to revert to the socially/ economically cut-off situation of the earlier (pre 1900) decades, if they were to maintain fertility.
It would have been a huge, and divisive, step no doubt – but don’t think anything short of that would suffice.
But even that relies on being “left alone” by the national and local governments (and mass media) and I suspect that nowadays Mormons who tried to break away and “do their own thing” in large numbers, would Not be left alone.
Michael
August 12, 2024
How to convince even a minority of Western latter-day saints that their family’s survival depends on de-integrating.
the_archduke
August 13, 2024
Health has prevented my wife and I from having more than 2. Literally, as we desperately want more but haven’t been able to conceive.
I have LDS friends who bragged about their vasectomies. Usually after 1 or 2 kids.
In my ward 4 or 5 kids is a big family and we have a lot of childless couples. Some seemingly by choice, though I don’t know everyone’s circumstances. Only one family expecting in the 10 or so active families of childbearing age.
Anecdotally I wept inside a bit a few months ago as an LDS coworker explained to a non-LDS coworker than she only had 2 kids by specific choice and “she wasn’t like ‘those Mormons’ “. Said co-worker is an RM married to an RM.
G.
August 13, 2024
Those Mormons –exalted
Annie
August 13, 2024
The selfishness has crept in on cat’s paws. (excepting those who can’t conceive) Modernity is a disease. And can I really excuse myself? My generation’s magic number was 4.
Sute
August 14, 2024
In regards to those Mormons vs these Mormons, we need to give some grace to people to be wrong. We could all look back 10 or 20 years and see how wrong we were about certain perspectives on life.
The reality is God does exactly that with us. Eventually the scales will fall from their eyes.
As long as we are confident before God in our position we don’t need to feel threatened or upset at people who don’t know yet how wrong they are.
Observer
August 16, 2024
My wife and I had 5 kids before we had to stop for health reasons, primarily mental health. By the time our 5th child was born, our oldest had been diagnosed with ASD, and our 3rd child was also showing signs of ASD, my wife had already gone through multiple rounds of post-partum depression, and it was clear that we were going to be dealing with significant health challenges among our children. After a lot of prayerful discussion my wife and I agreed that a vasectomy was absolutely the right course for our family.
All 5 of them are special needs/neurodivergent, with 2 on the Autism spectrum, the older 4 diagnosed with ADHD, 2 diagnosed with Disruptive Mood Dysregulation Disorder, and an assortment of other diagnoses. And that’s not including the youngest that we are still working on getting diagnosed (there’s a 2-year waiting list for testing).
All of this takes a toll on our family, both financially, emotionally, and spiritually. We have dealt with multiple children suffering from suicidal ideation. After years of intense effort, we are finally starting to see some progress as our oldest is entering his teen years, but we still have a long road ahead.
It’s important to be careful not to judge others for their choices. You don’t always know the context of what they are dealing with, or what challenges they are facing.
Could my wife and I have had more children? Physically, yes. But the toll it would have taken on us in other ways would have been greater than our family would have been able to handle.
Ugly Mahana
August 16, 2024
On this particular subject in particular, it seems many members would rather see generally applicable criticisms muted rather than determine whether or how the criticisms apply to themselves.
I fear this does not bode well for correcting the negative trend.
An alternative approach would be to support and encourage those who choose to have more children without rancor. As, hopefully, such parents support others efforts to obey all God’s commandments.
Comparing circumstances as if they are measures of righteousness is a rather curious form of pride.