Junior Ganymede
We endeavor to give satisfaction

The Death Rattle of Something.

September 26th, 2011 by Adam G.

And the baby rattle of nothing. Whatever term you use for modern times and to identify what is distinctive about the modern west, let it be poisonous. Let if reflect that populations are collapsing worldwide, and now that hard times have set in, the collapse is becoming more rapid. It takes a pretty nasty set of circumstances for people to double down on their folly once the folly is exposed.

Comments (6)
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September 26th, 2011 08:13:21
6 comments

Vader
September 26, 2011

His Majesty: “Just clone some more.”


Bookslinger
September 26, 2011

Aren’t the high birth rates in Latin America, much of Africa, and Pakistan making up the difference?


Bookslinger
September 26, 2011

Re the linked title “The World Will Be More Crowded — With Old People”.

But not before it’s crowded with the same people as youngsters.

Couple that with the article on abortion, but keep in mind that many African nations still have tremendously high birth rates (such as Nigeria), along with Pakistan, and something is not stacking up.

You younger guys may want to watch “Soylent Green”, the 1970′s movie about euthanasia in a future dystopian world. Also see “Roller Ball” with James Caan.


Adam G.
September 26, 2011

Books.
South American and most Middle Eastern birth rates have already approached replacement level or dropped below it. Africa continues to have high birth rates, but is trending downward.
The sorts of places that continue to have high birth rates are the sorts of places where Malthus does his work. If they ceased to be those sorts of places, the birthrates would probably drop.
So, short answer, no, they aren’t really making up the difference. Total world population will continue to grow, but the maximum point and then decline after that is already foreseeable.


Bookslinger
September 26, 2011

I wish I had the time and actuarial background to crunch the numbers. But I still don’t see the Muslim (whether they be in Muslim countries, or elsewhere, as in Europe) birth rate declining like the prognosticators. Like Mormons and Fundamental/Evangelical Christians, they have much religio-cultural motivation (plus political motivation) for a higher birthrate in spite of western cultural pressures to curb their birthrate, and in spite of economic prosperity that so often eliminates the desire to have more children to take care of you in your old age.

I also doubt that African birth-rates have trended downward. Nigeria continues to grow exponentially. And if any rates have trended downward, I would guess they are more than offset by reduced infant/child mortality, and increased longevity of adults.

In other words, in those 3rd-world countries, the number of children per woman who grow to adulthood is actually increasing. Plus, those who reach adulthood, are living longer. And I estimate both of those trends to continue, even if the birth-rate actually shrinks.

Let’s keep our eyes on China and India.

China worries me because those 20 million excess males, they call them “dead branches”, (which exceed the number of females of equivalent age), can be easily turned into cannon fodder.

If their leaders wanted to, China’s one-child policy can be repealed at the stroke of a pen, and then it takes only 20 years to produce even more soldiers.

Go to Wikipedia, and look at the population density of India, compared to other countries. Look at a population density map of India. India is running out of land. They have almost as many people as China (and will likely surpass them by 2020 to 2025), yet only a fraction of the land area as China. And India does not have, and never did have China’s one-child policy.

Hence, I believe India will look for population-density relief long before China does.

India currently has a middle-class that is larger than the entire US population.

China will soon be at that level, if not already.

China also currently has more (college-age) _geniuses_ than the US has total college students. (I think the college-age qualifier of geniuses is correct, but I’m not 100% certain.)

China and India are going to play a big part in the demand for arable (farmable) land around the world. The population is increasing, but the number of arable acres is not increasing as rapidly. (And only in creasing in terms of clearing forests or converting potentially arable land into actually arable land.)

Then factor in demand for rare-earth and precious metals. And how the 2nd and 3rd world countries are increasing their demand for those too. Hence, even when the day comes of little to no population growth, the competition for the materials that make up our modern world will increase, and have similar effect to population increase.


Adam G.
September 27, 2011

Like Mormons and Fundamental/Evangelical Christians, they have much religio-cultural motivation

Mormon and fundamentalist/evangelical Christian birth rates have also been trending downward, in some cases quite dramatically. We don’t have good figures available, but my best estimate is that the American Mormon TFR is at least 2 children lower than it was 20 years ago.

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