Is China Broke?
March 12th, 2010 by Bruce Nielson
I’ve heard so many times what great financial shape China is in, I was starting to actually believe it.
But communist (or not so communist) dictatorships just aren’t capable of good financial management. That’s why this article may well turn out to be the real truth.
I have several bets going with people that within 20 years (probably sooner), the current Régime in China will be gone either through violent overthrow or by being forced by the rising middle class to democratize. Everyone thinks I’m nuts. We’ll see.
Agellius
March 12, 2010
Wow, very interesting.
I don’t think you’re nuts. My feeling has been that the government would gradually evolve over the decades to become more and more democratic. I thought this would be inevitable due to the freeing up of the economy: The government would know which side its bread is buttered on, plus the business sector, as it got richer and richer, would naturally influence government more and more, and get its own people into government. Business people know that the freer a society is, the better for business. Capitalism is basically democracy after all: we vote with our dollars.
But from this article I wonder if some crisis might come along to force radical change at some point, rather than gradual evolution.
Vader
March 12, 2010
I wonder what the effect of demographics will be. The One Child Policy means every working Chinese will be supporting a couple of retired Chinese, unless something else changes.
Heck, we are having a tough time keeping Social Security solvent with the highest birthrate among first-world nations — 2.2 children per mother, barely above replacement.
Rameumptom
March 12, 2010
The problem is, while China may be broke, it has two things going for it: First a strong tyrannical government that can force people into whatever labor it so chooses. Second, it has the USA borrowing money from China, so we can buy their stuff. As Lenin mentioned, America will hang itself with its own rope. The question is, which will fall first – China or the USA?